Case Study

    Pacific Heating & Cooling

    A data-driven test of AI-powered direct mail for prospecting that generated ~$138,000 from a ~$12,000 investment in 36 days.

    ~11x
    Return on Investment
    ~$138K
    Revenue Generated
    36 days
    Time to Results

    The Challenge

    Katherine Lundin, Marketing Director at Pacific HVAC faced familiar constraints: a limited budget and pressure to demonstrate measurable results. While Google Ads provided steady leads, she questioned whether passive, intent-based marketing captured all available opportunity.

    Proactive vs. Passive

    Does proactive outreach drive incremental action, or do customers only respond when actively searching?

    Budget Optimization

    How to maximize return on investment when budget constraints require selective targeting?

    Attribution Clarity

    Can attribution be proven beyond last-touch metrics that may over-credit passive channels?

    The Solution

    A controlled test using AI-powered audience selection and a holdout group to measure true incrementality. The entire campaign was executed end-to-end.

    1

    Audience Selection

    • Total addressable market: 93,609 single family homes in service area
    • AI-generated customer profile identified 40,000-50,000 matching homes
    • Proprietary AI scoring narrowed to 30,000 highest-propensity targets
    • 25,000 selected for direct mail campaign
    • 5,000 randomly sampled as holdout group (no outreach)
    93.6K
    Total Market
    40K
    AI Matched
    30K
    High Propensity
    2

    Campaign Execution

    The platform handled all campaign execution: design, printing, shipping, and delivery. This eliminated operational complexity.

    Format
    Direct mail postcard
    Offer
    $179 HVAC tune-up
    Investment
    $12,188 / 24,834 pieces
    Launch Date
    September 4, 2025
    3

    Attribution Tracking

    Multiple attribution methods provided comprehensive visibility:

    • Direct attribution via campaign phone number and QR code scans
    • Matchback attribution using address-based tracking
    • Time-to-action measurement from delivery date
    • Complete journey tracking from appointment through close

    Results

    36-day performance comparison between matched audiences.

    Metric
    Holdout
    Campaign
    Revenue
    ~$3K
    ~$138K
    Jobs Sold
    2
    15
    Avg Ticket
    $1.5K
    $9.2K
    ~11x
    Return on Investment
    6x
    Higher Avg Ticket

    Analysis

    1

    Targeting Precision

    AI scoring identified prospects with high purchase intent, not just demographic fit. The campaign group closed 15 jobs while the matched holdout group closed only 2, demonstrating the quality of AI-driven targeting. More significantly, the average ticket size was more than 6x larger ($9,200 vs $1,500) with proactive engagement, indicating the campaign reached customers ready for larger system investments.

    2

    Incrementality Proof

    The holdout group, identical in quality but receiving no outreach, generated only ~$3,000 from 2 jobs. The campaign group delivered ~$138,000 from 15 jobs. This 46x difference demonstrates the campaign created substantial incremental revenue rather than capturing existing demand.

    3

    End-to-End Execution

    The platform handled the entire campaign lifecycle: audience selection, creative design, printing, shipping, tracking, and attribution. This eliminated operational complexity and enabled precise measurement.

    "Google Ads worked until it didn't. Every additional dollar produced diminishing returns. Arch's Proprietary AI Score analyzed 93,609 homes to identify propensity signals that precede search behavior. We reached qualified prospects outside the Google ecosystem at a fraction of the cost, and the platform's end-to-end execution made tracking seamless and precise."
    Katherine Lundin
    Marketing Director, Pacific Heating & Cooling

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