In 2018, the U.S. government introduced tariffs on steel and aluminum imports to boost American industries. While the goal was to protect local jobs, these tariffs have made life tougher for the HVAC sector. Steel and aluminum are essential for building HVAC systems—used in everything from ductwork to compressors. When the price of these metals goes up, so does the cost of heating and cooling equipment. Fortunately, data science offers solutions to soften the blow.

Why Tariffs Hurt HVAC

The tariffs slapped a 25% tax on steel and a 10% tax on aluminum from certain countries. Since then, metal prices have soared. Steel costs have climbed by about 30% from 2018 to 2023, and aluminum prices have risen by 20%. For HVAC manufacturers, this means higher production costs. A residential HVAC system that cost $3,500 in 2017 might now run you $4,200—a jump driven largely by these tariffs. Homeowners, contractors, and businesses all feel the pinch.

How Data Science & Arch Help Fight Back Against Rising Costs

Data science tools can help HVAC companies manage these rising costs in practical ways:

• Predicting Price Changes: By analyzing past trends and tariff updates, data tools can forecast future metal prices. This lets businesses buy materials at the right time to avoid price spikes.
• Smarter Sourcing: Data can reveal the cheapest, most reliable suppliers—even under tariff rules. It might suggest shifting to a domestic source or a tariff-free country.
• Pricing Made Simple: Real-time data helps companies adjust their prices to cover costs without scaring off customers.
• Specifically for Arch: HVAC contractors will need to find ways to increase ROI of their business in the face of rising costs. Given that marketing is a big spend category, making use of data to drive better conversion and lead sourcing is a great way to manage rising HVAC equipment costs.

Why This Matters

Tariffs have made HVAC systems more expensive, but data science gives businesses a way to adapt. With the right insights, they can plan ahead, cut costs, and keep projects affordable.

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